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   ACUS11 KWNS 190009   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 190009=20   
   TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190215-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2209   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0609 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Areas affected...The Missouri Bootheel into parts of western   
   Tennessee and Kentucky   
      
   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636...   
      
   Valid 190009Z - 190215Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636   
   continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across   
   portions of the mid-MS River Valley and lower OH River Valley over   
   the next couple of hours as storms move into a favorable air mass.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms moving across far southeast MO have   
   struggled to maintain intensity thus far, likely owing to lingering   
   inhibition noted in recent RAP mesoanalyses. Despite new updraft   
   development noted in IR imagery over the past hour, most new cells   
   have similarly struggled to intensify, casting doubt on storm   
   coverage through the rest of the evening. However, ongoing cells are   
   migrating into the apex of the low-level theta-e plume where   
   buoyancy should be relatively maximized. The KPAH VWP continues to   
   sample strong mid-level flow, suggesting that the best convective   
   environment remains immediately downstream of already established,   
   albeit weak, supercells. While confidence is low, an uptick in storm   
   intensity/organization remains possible over the next couple of   
   hours as storms cross the MS River and enter far western KY and far   
   northwest KY.   
      
   ..Moore.. 11/19/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!-B7oRvlgjlQVA5QgD1RDL3k0P_AfWbCZWvxohoGm1BbZ2WMkVLfAE2BkvgYremgP2jm5qIYDK=   
   YY0vDWLCgSFCH8ks5Q$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...   
      
   LAT...LON   36689051 36849036 37438910 37518878 37448838 36708751   
               36558746 36418746 36258754 35978778 35768811 35758857   
               36489054 36689051=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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