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   ACUS11 KWNS 182056   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 182056=20   
   TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-182300-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2208   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0256 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri...western   
   Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Illinois   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 182056Z - 182300Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms, including a few   
   supercells are possible late this afternoon into this evening.   
   Should stronger storms develop and maintain, hail, and perhaps a   
   tornado or two are possible.   
      
   DISCUSSION...As of 2100 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed   
   several bands of gradually deepening cumulus across portions of   
   southern MO and far northern AR. Developing along a subtle   
   confluence axis near a surface low positioned at the junction of the   
   MS/OH rivers, weak low-level convergence near the low and increasing   
   ascent ahead of a mid-level trough should continue to support   
   destabilization and weakening of remaining inhibition this   
   afternoon. Continued heating amid increasing boundary-layer moisture   
   (dewpoints near 60 F) is supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,   
   sufficient for strong updrafts. A 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet   
   overspreading the northern portions of the warm sector will also aid   
   in enlarging low and mid-level hodographs for organized storms,   
   including a few supercells.   
      
   With sufficient buoyancy and vertical shear for supercells, a   
   conditional severe risk is apparent late this afternoon. Some CAM   
   guidance shows a band of broken cells spreading east/southeastward   
   across the MO Boot Heal into northeast AR and western TN/KY vicinity   
   through this evening. With the aforementioned environment conducive   
   for supercells, hail would be possible given stronger rotating   
   updrafts and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The threat for a   
   tornado or two is less certain, but could be locally favored near   
   the warm front where the strongest low-level shear (ESRH 100-200   
   m2/s2) and moisture advection are expected tonight.   
      
   The primary uncertainty this afternoon and evening remains the   
   intensity and longevity of any surface/near-surface based storms   
   able to develop. With large-scale forcing passing north of the   
   returning warm sector, convective coverage may be somewhat sparse or   
   delayed until the low-level jet strengthens isentropic ascent later   
   this evening. Given this uncertainty, it is unclear if a WW is   
   needed, though the environment could support some severe threat into   
   tonight. Conditions will continue to be monitored closely should WW   
   issuance be needed.   
      
   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/18/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9cV48t18HfxwGUFobQJEn_ipZvnPOMbVLPWiZVuKwaheB4wt4XC7okfU2WqEBFVvQ6S0LiZEq=   
   IOc02ZPy1R2enCy9jo$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...   
      
   LAT...LON   37008736 37798835 38208990 38119081 36969215 36389199   
               35848981 35758834 35878773 36218714 37008736=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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