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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0121 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on   
   Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this   
   time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee   
   Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Broad upper-level troughing will prevail across the western U.S.   
   through the day, with a low-level warm-air advection regime   
   persisting across the Southern Plains into the TN Valley on   
   Thursday. Two embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are poised to   
   pivot around the broader upper trough Thursday afternoon into the   
   overnight period. The first mid-level shortwave trough will eject   
   into the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley region and de-amplify while   
   the second shortwave trough attempts to evolve into a cut-off low   
   over southern CA. The passage of the first trough over the southern   
   Plains will encourage weak surface low development around the KS/OK   
   border during the second half of the period. A broad fetch of   
   moisture will be maintained within the warm-air advection regime, so   
   any upper support overspreading the moist axis across the southern   
   Plains into the TN Valley will support continued scattered   
   thunderstorm development.   
      
   The de-amplification of the passing mid-level impulse will encourage   
   deep-layer veering of the low to mid-level wind fields across the   
   southern Plains. While scattered thunderstorms and more widespread   
   showers/cloudiness will be ongoing Thursday morning, the deep-layer   
   veered flow may aid in persistent training showers and thunderstorms   
   within the warm-air advection regime. The best chance for training   
   thunderstorms will be from central TX into OK Thursday afternoon   
   into the evening hours. Given reduced boundary-layer buoyancy with   
   the training storms, severe potential still appears nebulous. Some   
   guidance suggests that stronger storms (perhaps accompanied by an   
   isolated severe threat) may develop across parts of central TX late   
   Thursday afternoon. However, deep-layer ascent will glance this   
   region to the north, with forecast soundings showing appreciable   
   mid-level warming over central TX, so no severe probabilities have   
   been introduced at this time.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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