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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1117 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the southern   
   Plains tomorrow (Wednesday) evening into early Thursday morning.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level trough will meander across the Southwest tomorrow   
   (Wednesday), which will encourage modest lee troughing and   
   subsequent low-level moisture return across the southern Plains.   
   Cooler temperatures aloft, associated with the aforementioned   
   trough, will overspread portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin   
   to the Four Corners, fostering weak buoyancy amid strong deep-layer   
   ascent to support isolated thunderstorm development. Across the   
   southern Plains, weak upper support from the approaching trough to   
   the West, gradually overspreading a low-level moist axis, will   
   support the development of widely scattered thunderstorms,   
   especially Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A few of   
   these thunderstorms may be strong to potentially severe.   
      
   ...Portions of the southern Plains...   
   During the late afternoon/early evening hours, a low-level warm-air   
   advection regime will become established across the southern Plains   
   by late afternoon. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect   
   north-northwestward as a 25-40 kt southerly 850 mb jet develops   
   across western into central TX. Upper support is expected to be   
   modest at best through at least the 00Z period, suggesting that   
   deep-moist convection should remain isolated through roughly the   
   first half of the period. However, increasing low-level convergence   
   with the strengthening low-level jet should support an increased   
   coverage of thunderstorms through the night across western into   
   central TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the moist   
   axis, resulting in over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs,   
   which may support a few multicellular or even transient supercell   
   structures. Some of the stronger storms may be capable of producing   
   severe hail.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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