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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0636 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the   
   lower Ohio Valley region today.   
      
   ...Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...   
   Elevated thunderstorms ongoing this morning across the mid MS/lower   
   OH Valley are being aided by a southwesterly low-level jet and   
   related warm/moist advection. This activity may pose an isolated   
   hail threat as it tracks eastward this morning across the lower OH   
   Valley before eventually encountering a less unstable airmass. A   
   mid-level shortwave trough will advance eastward across the   
   Midwest/mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through this evening. A   
   weak surface low attendant to this shortwave trough will likewise   
   develop east-southeastward across MO into the lower OH Valley while   
   gradually weakening. Low-level moisture will return northward across   
   this region ahead of a east-southeastward advancing cold front.   
      
   Current expectations are for some re-intensification of convection   
   to occur this afternoon across the southern IL/western KY vicinity   
   as strong ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads   
   this region. There is still some uncertainty with how far north the   
   surface warm sector will be able to advance, and daytime heating may   
   be muted by persistent cloudiness. But, the best combination of weak   
   to locally moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear   
   should overlap across the mid MS/lower OH Valley this afternoon and   
   evening as a 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet moves across these   
   areas. Any sustained supercell may be capable of producing severe   
   hail along with locally damaging winds, with elevated convection   
   possible north of the warm front into central IL/southern IN. Some   
   threat for a tornado or two may also exist if sufficient   
   boundary-layer instability can advance far enough northward in   
   tandem with the warm front and enhanced low-level shear to support   
   surface-based thunderstorms. No changes have been made to the   
   Marginal Risk with this update. Confidence in a more concentrated   
   corridor of severe risk was not high enough to include greater   
   severe probabilities at this time, but trends will be monitored.   
      
   ...Lower Colorado River Valley/Arizona...   
   A closed mid/upper-level low along the coast of central/southern CA   
   will make only slow progress southward today. Large-scale ascent   
   associated with a south-southwesterly mid-level jet should encourage   
   convective development today across parts of the lower CO River   
   Valley and AZ. While deep-layer shear appears adequate for organized   
   updrafts, weak instability will likely limit the overall severe   
   threat across this region.   
      
   ..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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