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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0324 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat - Southeast TX to the Carolinas...   
      
   A shortwave upper trough over the southern Plains will migrate east   
   across the Mid-South on Friday, and exiting the southern   
   Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday evening. Gulf moisture will spread   
   across much of the region ahead of a weak surface low and slowly   
   moving cold front. Thunderstorms, perhaps some strong, could develop   
   near the front from southeast TX into the Mid-South and OH/TN Valley   
   vicinity on Friday into early Saturday. However, instability is   
   expected to remain weak as boundary layer moisture decreases with   
   northeast extent. Furthermore, low-level flow will remain veering   
   and boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will favor more of a   
   messy/training storm mode. While some low-end severe probabilities   
   could become necessary in later outlook, potential appears too low   
   for 15 percent probabilities on Friday.   
      
   Thunderstorms will continue to develop eastward into the Carolinas   
   on Saturday as the cold front continues to sag southeast. Weak   
   instability will likely preclude severe potential into Saturday.   
      
   ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue - Southern Plains...   
      
   Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably by Days   
   6-7/Sun-Mon and confidence/predictability is low. However, in   
   general another upper trough is expected to deepen across the   
   Southwestern U.S. early next week, perhaps ejecting into the Plains   
   sometime around the end of the forecast period. Gulf return flow   
   will occur across TX ahead of this next trough in a progressive   
   upper pattern. Increasing moisture and shear as the trough ejects   
   could support severe potential across the southern Plains early next   
   week, but details remain uncertain.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/18/2025   
      
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