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   FOUS11 KWBC 180745   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   245 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Tue Nov 18 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
   ...Southern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Low to mid level frontogenesis and coupled upper jet forcing   
   accompanying an upper low moving moving through the central Plains   
   this morning is continuing to support a band of light to moderate   
   precipitation lifting north from Iowa and Illinois into southern   
   Minnesota and Wisconsin. General consensus of the models indicate   
   precipitation will remain mostly rain through the remainder of the   
   overnight with a changeover to sleet and snow near sunrise across   
   parts of southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. WPC   
   probabilities indicate the greatest potential for accumulating snow   
   beyond an inch is across central Wisconsin, where snow is expected   
   to linger the longest before diminishing in the afternoon.   
      
   ...California through the Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A series of upper lows impacting the West will continue through the   
   period, with the latest system now dropping south along the   
   California coast. This low is expected to settle into southern   
   California by late today and linger near the California-Mexico   
   border into early Thursday before the next system begins to kick it   
   east as it follows a path similar to its predecessor along the   
   California coast.   
      
   In addition to locally heavy snow along the southern Sierra Nevada   
   today, moist easterly flow along with favorable upper forcing is   
   expected to support heavy totals farther to the east along the   
   White Mountains as well. WPC probabilities indicate amounts greater   
   than 8 inches are likely for locations above 8,000 feet over the   
   next 24 hours. Amounts exceeding 8 inches are also expected for the   
   southern Nevada ranges north of Las Vegas and over the   
   southwestern Utah mountains.   
      
   Wednesday into early Thursday is expected to be a relatively   
   quieter period. High elevation snows will continue across the   
   Southwest into the southern Rockies, but apart from some isolated   
   heavier totals over southern Utah and the higher elevations of   
   northern and central Arizona, amounts are expected to be generally   
   light.   
      
   A broader threat for heavy snowfall will develop during the day on   
   Thursday, especially for the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo   
   mountains, as the leading low begins to move east. However,   
   southerly winds will keep snow levels high, with the higher   
   probabilities for accumulations greater than 6 inches remaining   
   mostly above 10,000 ft.   
      
   Meanwhile, mountain snow will spread south across   
   California on Thursday into Friday morning, but the progressive   
   nature of this next system will help limit the threat for   
   widespread heavy amounts.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   $$   
      
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