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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1213 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the southern   
   Plains on Wednesday evening into early Thursday.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
      
   Southerly low-level flow beneath an upper ridge centered over the   
   central U.S. will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX and   
   OK. To the west, an upper low/trough over southern CA and northern   
   Baja Wednesday morning will develop eastward through the period,   
   with the system forecast to be over AZ and northwest Mexico by   
   Thursday morning. Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase across   
   the southern Plains as the western upper trough ejects eastward.   
      
   However, more substantial height falls are not expected across the   
   Plains until after 00z, with some guidance maintaining neutral   
   height tendencies until closer to 06z. Furthermore, warmer midlevel   
   temperatures around 700 mb may maintain capping for much of the   
   diurnal period. Forecast soundings across multiple models show quite   
   a bit of spread with regards to surface-based evolution. While   
   large-scale ascent will likely remain muted until late in the   
   period, persistent warm advection and increasing vertical shear may   
   support isolated to scattered storm development near the stationary   
   surface boundary from west-central TX toward the Red River during   
   the evening into the overnight. Modest instability and shear may be   
   sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms, mainly capable of   
   producing hail.   
      
   ...Southeast AZ/southwest NM...   
      
   Cooling aloft closer to the upper low/trough will support steep   
   midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel moisture. This will   
   result in weak instability amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. A   
   couple of stronger storms could produce small hail or gusty winds,   
   but overall severe potential appears limited at this time given a   
   relatively cool boundary-layer and weak buoyancy.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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