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   ACUS11 KWNS 180555   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 180555=20   
   MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180830-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2207   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1155 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of MO into far northeast OK/northwest AR   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 180555Z - 180830Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible overnight.   
   Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A compact mid/upper-level low is moving eastward across   
   NE late this evening. Southeast of this low, a strong (40+ kt)   
   southwesterly low-level jet is currently being sampled by area VWPs.   
   The warm-advection regime associated with this low-level jet will   
   support additional rounds of elevated convection overnight from the   
   Ozarks into the mid MS Valley.=20   
      
   The most favorable environment for organized storms overnight will   
   extend from northeast OK/northwest AR into central/southern MO,   
   where a plume of moderate MUCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) will overlap   
   favorable effective shear (greater than 40+ kt). While this   
   environment would conditionally support elevated supercells, the   
   strongest large-scale ascent may tend to remain displaced to the   
   north and east, in closer proximity to the left-exit region of a   
   jetlet associated with the mid/upper-level low. This results in some   
   uncertainty regarding the intensity and organization of overnight   
   elevated convection with southward extent.=20   
      
   Generally modest midlevel lapse rates may temper hail potential to   
   some extent, but isolated severe hail could accompany the strongest   
   overnight storms. Locally gusty winds also cannot be ruled out,   
   especially if any sustained/organized cells or clusters can develop   
   with time.   
      
   ..Dean/Hart.. 11/18/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!8lPN-C0DbD7GPdbHY0AePVazV-34Wki2g-S6njyk7v4RSqEsJyvcmXf7iccbJ4DifzKlzBPwX=   
   9jORsPvFwNGWg8cN9I$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...   
      
   LAT...LON   36799528 37269458 39759300 39669151 38959062 38639030   
               38009055 37369099 36569204 35839292 35929436 36099471   
               36799528=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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