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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1139 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER   
   OHIO VALLEY REGION...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the   
   Lower Ohio Valley region.   
      
   ...Lower OH Valley...   
      
   Central Plains upper trough is shifting east toward the mid MS   
   Valley, in line with latest model guidance. As a 60+kt 500mb speed   
   max translates across MO into southern IL/IN, this feature will   
   advance into the lower OH Valley by 19/00z, suppressing the height   
   field as far south as the OH River. Veered, but strong LLJ will   
   focus across southern MO-southern IL/IN before being nudged   
   downstream into eastern KY/southern OH by early evening. Net result   
   will be for a NW-SE oriented corridor of warm advection to shift   
   east during the day ahead of a weak surface low near the base of the   
   short-wave trough.   
      
   Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue as   
   instability will gradually increase along this corridor as midlevel   
   temperatures cool and lapse rates steepen a bit. In the absence of   
   strong boundary-layer heating, the majority of convection that   
   develops across this region will be elevated and aided in large part   
   by the LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest lifted parcel level will   
   gradually lower by late afternoon such that near-surface based   
   parcels could yield modest instability (800-1000 J/kg). Primary   
   concern today will be hail with elevated supercells, but some   
   tornado risk is possible with late-day storms, where parcel lift   
   reflects lower 60s dew points that are expected to return toward the   
   confluence of the MS/OH Rivers during the afternoon.   
      
   ...Lower Colorado River Valley/southwest AZ...   
      
   Weak midlevel height falls will spread across the lower CO River   
   Valley today as the upper low off the southern CA Coast eventually   
   settles toward the international border/northern Baja Peninsula. As   
   this features digs southeast, a weak LLJ should extend across   
   southwestern AZ into the early part of the afternoon. Latest   
   thinking is scattered convection should evolve ahead of the cold   
   front as it surges across the lower CO River Valley. Forecast   
   soundings exhibit ample shear for organized rotating updrafts, but   
   buoyancy is expected to be weak. Given the modest lapse rates, there   
   is concern updrafts may struggle a bit and hail is expected to   
   remain below severe levels. Some consideration was given to adding a   
   2 percent probability for the risk of a brief tornado but will hold   
   off at this time given the marginality of the situation.   
      
   ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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