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   AWUS01 KWNH 180354   
   FFGMPD   
   CAZ000-180753-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1230   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1053 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southern California   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 180353Z - 180753Z   
      
   Summary...Flash flood potential continues for at least 2-4 more   
   hours.   
      
   Discussion...A warm conveyor continues to spread moderate to heavy   
   rainfall into portions of southern California near the Los Angeles   
   basin and adjacent areas of the Transverse Ranges.  Recent   
   observations suggest that 0.5 inch/hr rain rates were falling over   
   or very near burn scars just north of Los Angeles, suggesting   
   continued potential for excessive runoff and debris flows.=20   
   Mesoanalyses indicate a continued fetch of southwesterly 850mb   
   flow into the region oriented parallel to the coastal ranges,   
   supporting continued orographic enhancement of rain rates at   
   times.  PW values near an inch and weak surface-based instability   
   also continue to support the convective nature of the activity and   
   locally heavy rain rates.=20   
      
   Models suggest that these rates will continue to impact burn scar   
   areas over the next 2-4 hours (through 07Z or so) while   
   translating slowly eastward.  Flash flooding will remain a   
   possibility, though this risk should become more isolated with   
   time as rain rates are expected to gradually weaken.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_Lg5brlhc3l8TD-QR5rcay76pvzFWwwYGIJQpPeKzNXG0xFgdiYBDr3pyuoXkzT3fOGP=   
   k9Y_FcFrxoaKrLCXc2oRlZY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34971836 34901737 34381647 33161635 32611652=20   
               32711701 33401774 34051865=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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