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   ACUS01 KWNS 180043   
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   SPC AC 180042   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0642 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE   
   MISSOURI REGION...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few strong thunderstorms, capable of producing hail, may occur   
   across parts of Missouri and western Illinois tonight.   
      
   ...01z Update...   
      
   Upper ridge is beginning to flatten across the MS Valley as midlevel   
   height falls spread into this region ahead of a progressive   
   short-wave trough. Early-evening water-vapor imagery clearly depicts   
   this feature over NE/KS and a 60-70kt 500mb speed max will translate   
   across KS into western MO by 06z. This feature will encourage the   
   LLJ to strengthen across MO into western IL, which will aid a   
   corridor of warm advection across the lower MO Valley region through   
   sunrise.   
      
   One pocket of elevated convection has developed within this zone and   
   scattered convection is spreading across eastern MO into western IL   
   at 0030z. Latest MRMS data suggests small hail is likely occurring   
   within the more robust updrafts. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits a   
   strongly sheared, warm advection profile, but only meager MUCAPE is   
   noted for parcels lifted near 850mb. Forecast soundings across the   
   MRGL Risk area show increasing instability later tonight, especially   
   after midnight. As large-scale forcing increases, scattered elevated   
   thunderstorms should develop, some of which may generate hail.   
      
   ..Darrow.. 11/18/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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