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   ACUS11 KWNS 172318   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 172318=20   
   ILZ000-MOZ000-180115-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2206   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0518 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into far western Illinois   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 172318Z - 180115Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will likely increase in   
   coverage over the next few hours across eastern Missouri and into   
   far western Illinois. While most storms should remain sub-severe, a   
   few stronger cores my periodically be capable of producing hail near   
   severe limits.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery and MRMS data show a steady   
   uptick in new updrafts within a growing cluster of thunderstorms   
   just east of the Columbia, MO area. This cluster has a history of   
   mainly producing sub-severe hail (0.25 to 0.75 inches per mPING   
   reports), but occasional hail stones up to 1 inch have been   
   reported. The developing thunderstorms are maturing in a similar   
   thermodynamic and kinematic environment (characterized by modest   
   MUCAPE, but strong shear through the CAPE-bearing layer), and will   
   likely see periodic upticks in intensity that may support instances   
   of hail near 1 inch. As thunderstorm coverage increases, storm   
   interactions may act to modulate the severe threat further; however,   
   continued eastward advection of a plume of ~7 C/km lapse rates and   
   low-level moistening/isentropic ascent should continue to promote   
   thunderstorm development for the next few hours into far western IL.   
   Given the overall modest thermodynamic environment and expectation   
   for mainly sub-severe hail, watch issuance is not expected.   
      
   ..Moore/Hart.. 11/17/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!8ygBtF81vFsc6nJAkmA-UQiEQQb9cYxDAb4rfIT5i41K81Y4Gd5YOrj2uCazl009kv3X3bCMr=   
   qdY0SjviWk2OWVI_8w$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...   
      
   LAT...LON   38229070 38179092 38199121 38289198 38349212 38529223   
               38829221 39159223 39409242 39729240 39949216 40079185   
               40109150 40079124 39979101 39919086 39159014 38879011   
               38619024 38229070=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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