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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1229   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   445 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Southern California...   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 172145Z - 180345Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall conditions improving, but still an   
   isolated potential for .5"/hr rates with max totals in the   
   Transverse Ranges near 1.5" through evening. Saturated grounds and   
   urban locations have possibility for isolated flooding concerns.   
      
   DISCUSSION...GOES-W Visible and Regional RADAR mosaic denotes a   
   broader shield of mid-level strato-cu across the western portions   
   of the Transverse Ranges across E Santa Barbara county indicative   
   of a subtle southwesterly shortwave lifting northeastward through   
   in proximity to the cold front.  This is in some response to the   
   larger scale digging closed low orienting more NW to SE providing   
   deeper layer divergence above 500mb and overall DPVA through the   
   California Bight into Southern California this afternoon into   
   evening.   However, the lower level pressure gradient is   
   broadening through the Bight and winds have diminished throughout   
   the afternoon.  Still, 20-25kts of southerly flow coincident with   
   the vertically stacked moisture plume still advects .75 to 1"   
   total PWats (IVT values of 250-300 kg/m/s) fairly orthogonal to   
   the Transverse Ranges of Ventura and Los Angeles counties and will   
   spill over to the San Bernardino Ranges through evening.=20   
   Localized totals of 1-1.5" are possible in the highest elevations   
   but overall rates and ascent will be diminishing with the   
   weakening wind field.=20   
      
   Off the terrain,  the environmental conditions are very limited   
   for flooding, but recent saturated grounds per NASA SPoRT suggest,   
   above average run-off could be expected.  With that stated, some   
   modest surface to boundary layer heating has developed this   
   afternoon providing some weak but sufficient instability;  MLCAPEs   
   of 150-250 J/kg are present and with 10-12 kg/m/s deep layer   
   moisture convergence along the front, some vertical development   
   and enhanced rainfall rates are possible through the evening   
   likely topping out around .5"/hr perhaps inducing some isolated to   
   widely scattered incident(s) of urban flooding concerns through   
   03z.=20=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!9unAJHAWFEgaYz1VRg6fwIkbpTRW82pvEbKw7sViPYiDcu1XKujuA8lj8kRTgFAw-F2X=   
   DADRCR0SzZl4uVJLQ4Km9H4$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35061949 34961850 34191722 32761696 32611733=20   
               33011763 33531807 33761859 33831901 34401968=20   
               34741979=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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