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   FOUS11 KWBC 172101   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   401 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Tue Nov 18 2025 - 00Z Fri Nov 21 2025   
      
      
   ...Southern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Mid-level low pressure over the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon   
   shifts east to Iowa tonight and to northern Indiana Tuesday.   
   Dynamics with this system are sufficient to create locally heavy   
   deformation zone bands wrapping around the north side with enough   
   dynamic cooling to overcome the marginal thermal environment and   
   cause snow accumulations overnight through Tuesday morning. This   
   would be in a narrow stripe over southern MN (south of the Twin   
   Cities) into central WI. Day 1 WPC snow probs for >2" are 40-70%   
   through this zone which is a notable bump up from previous   
   forecasts. WFOs along this stripe have issued winter weather   
   advisories for this dynamic snow banding.   
      
      
   ...California through the Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A potent low pressure system currently approaching the San   
   Francisco Bay area will continue shifting down the CA coast tonight   
   before stalling off the SoCal coast through Tuesday night. This low   
   drifts inland Wednesday ahead of the next trough that approaches   
   northern CA Wednesday night.   
      
   Broad southerly flow wrapping around this low will pump subtropical   
   Pacific moisture northward and shift the focus of heavy snowfall   
   east of the crest of the southern Sierra Nevada and over the White   
   Mtns. Snow levels drop to around 7000ft under modest height falls   
   with moderate rates continuing through Tuesday. Day 1 snow probs   
   for >12" are 50-90% for the White Mtns and 40-70% for the higher eastern   
   slopes of the Sierra Nevada west of Owens Valley.   
      
   The moisture plume expands east Tuesday, spreading high level snow   
   through Mt Charleston above Las Vegas and southern Utah ranges.   
   Day 1.5 snow probs for >8" are 50-80% above the snow levels   
   which linger around 8000ft into Wednesday before rates taper off.   
      
   The slow progression east of the moisture plume continues   
   Wednesday night when the Mogollon Rim, White Mtns of AZ get heavy   
   snow as snow levels drop to around 7000ft as do the San Juans of CO   
   where snow levels drop to around 8000ft. Day 3 snow probs for >8"   
   are 40-80% in this terrain.   
      
      
   ...Northeast/Great Lakes...   
   Day 1...   
      
   West-northwesterly flow lingers over the eastern Great Lakes and   
   drives continued LES banding into Tuesday. This will continue to be   
   southeast of Lake Erie (where there is also Lake Huron fetch) from   
   the Chautauqua Ridge into north-central PA and generally just south   
   of Syracuse where a winter weather advisory lingers to mid-Tuesday   
   morning. Day 1 snow probs for >4" are limited to around/south of   
   Syracuse, though the low resolution ensemble member heavy PWPF   
   often under does the risk for LES banding.   
      
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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