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   ACUS01 KWNS 171950   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 171949   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0149 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 172000Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST   
   ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms should occur this evening and overnight   
   across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Ozarks and mid   
   Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across   
   the Southwest and central California. A few strong thunderstorms   
   capable of producing hail may occur across parts of Missouri and   
   western Illinois late tonight.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
   A few modest changes to the general thunderstorm forecast as well as   
   the Marginal in southwest MO/northwest AR based on recent   
   observation/trends in guidance. The forecast otherwise remains on   
   track. See the previous discussion for additional information.   
      
   ..Wendt.. 11/17/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025/   
      
   ...Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley...   
   Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Rockies will   
   continue eastward across the central Plains, reaching the Mid MS   
   Valley by early tomorrow. Mass response ahead of this wave will   
   support continued low-level moisture advection, with low 60s   
   dewpoints likely reaching far southeast KS/far southwest MO by early   
   tomorrow morning. Mid 60s dewpoints will likely cover much of   
   eastern OK and western AR. The stronger large-scale ascent will   
   remain displaced west and north of the better low-level moisture,   
   and strong convective inhibition will preclude surface-based storms   
   throughout the period. However, persistent theta-e advection   
   throughout the warm conveyor will promote elevated buoyancy and the   
   potential for multiple rounds of elevated thunderstorms from the   
   Ozarks northeastward into the Mid MS Valley.   
      
   The initial round of deeper convection is expected across the   
   central MO vicinity this afternoon near the terminus of a 35-40 kt   
   low-level jet. Buoyancy will remain modest, but there is enough   
   shear within the cloud-bearing layer for updraft rotation and the   
   production of isolated hail. Continued warm-air advection will   
   result in further low-level warming and moistening, increasing the   
   elevated buoyancy tonight. This buoyancy coupled with glancing   
   large-scale ascent and a strengthening low-level jet could result in   
   additional thunderstorms farther south and west into southwest MO,   
   as well as increased coverage and intensity of any ongoing   
   thunderstorms from central MO into far west-central IL. Moderate to   
   strong vertical shear will continue to support rotation within any   
   deep and persistent updrafts, with an attendant threat for isolated   
   hail.   
      
   ...CA into the Southwest...   
   Upper low currently off the northern CA coast will continue   
   southward throughout the day, ending the period over the San Luis   
   Obispo/Santa Barbara/Ventura county vicinity. Sporadic thunderstorms   
   are possible near this upper low, where cold mid-level temperature   
   and strong forcing for ascent are anticipated. A   
   non-lightning-producing band will move through the southern CA   
   coastal counties ahead of this low. Isolated lightning flashes are   
   also possible farther east within the warm conveyor over the Lower   
   CO River Valley and western AZ. Meager instability should limit the   
   threat for organized severe thunderstorms across the entire region.   
      
   $$   
      
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