TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166776.weather@1:2320/105 2d833835   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 171925   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 171924   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0124 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the southern   
   Plains on Wednesday evening into early Thursday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   On Wednesday, mid-level ridging will be present across much of the   
   eastern CONUS. A low-latitude trough will move slowly east across   
   the Southwest and start to emerge across the southern High Plains by   
   the end of the period.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
   Instability will increase during the day Wednesday as rich low-level   
   moisture advects northwestward across Texas. By 00Z, the primary   
   trough will start to emerge over the southern Plains with height   
   falls spreading east, a strengthening low-level jet, and upper-level   
   diffluence above a surface front. This increasing forcing,   
   especially after 00Z, should result in scattered thunderstorm   
   activity from the Rio Grande to the Red River from the Edwards   
   Plateau to north-central Texas. Despite the unfavorable overnight   
   timing, some severe weather is possible given moderate instability   
   and shear combined with moderate to strong forcing for ascent.   
      
   ...Southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico...   
   Strong heating is expected across southeast Arizona and southwest   
   New Mexico Wednesday afternoon with weak instability forecast to   
   develop. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds   
   may develop within a strongly sheared environment during the   
   afternoon. At this time, instability appears too weak for severe   
   weather probabilities.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 4/0 19/10 88/0 90/0 93/1 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 128/187 129/14 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 200 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 880/1 900/0 102 106 902/0 19   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 904/0 13 905/0 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5019/40 5020/400   
   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 341/66 902/26 229/426