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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 171708   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 171706   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1106 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the   
   Lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A positively tilted mid-level trough will move from the Midwest to   
   the Mid-Atlantic during the period on Tuesday. In its wake, ridging   
   will strengthen across the central CONUS ahead of a large trough   
   moving slowly east across southern California and into the   
   Southwest. A surface low and associated frontal features will begin   
   the period across the Ozarks and weaken through the day, becoming a   
   stalled, somewhat diffuse frontal zone near the Ohio River by 00Z.   
      
   ...Lower Ohio Valley Region...   
   Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the   
   period across the Lower Ohio Valley within a region of strong   
   isentropic ascent on the nose of a 50 knot low-level jet. Small hail   
   and isolated large hail is possible with this morning activity.   
   Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will advect northward ahead of the   
   cold front in the wake of this morning activity. This may result in   
   a zone of surface or near surface based instability along the cold   
   front by early to mid afternoon. Moderate instability amid   
   steepening lapse rates and strong effective shear may result in a   
   few supercells capable of primarily large hail during the   
   afternoon/early evening. Where surface based instability is most   
   likely, some tornado threat will exist given favorable streamwise   
   vorticity in the lowest levels of the hodograph. Weak low-level   
   lapse rates should keep any tornado threat limited overall.   
      
   After 00Z, a cooling boundary layer and increasing heights aloft   
   from the west should bring an end to the severe weather threat   
   rather quickly. If afternoon thunderstorms grow upscale into an   
   eastward advancing line, some threat could persist into the evening   
   across central Kentucky, but even this threat should cease by   
   03-04Z.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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