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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0634 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 171300Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms should occur this evening and overnight   
   across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Ozarks and mid   
   Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across   
   the Southwest and central California. A few strong thunderstorms may   
   occur across parts of Missouri and southern Illinois late tonight,   
   but organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A pair of upper troughs/lows will impact the CONUS today. The   
   leading upper trough/low will progress eastward over the central   
   Plains though this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley   
   late tonight. Farther west, a separate upper trough/low will develop   
   slowly southward across coastal CA through the period. With   
   seasonably cool temperatures and modestly steepened lapse rates   
   aloft associated with the western U.S. trough/low, isolated   
   thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA and the lower CO River   
   Valley/AZ. Meager instability across these areas should limit the   
   threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Father east, isolated to   
   scattered thunderstorms should develop this evening/overnight from   
   portions of the northern/central Plains into the MO and mid MS   
   Valleys. The bulk of this activity is expected to remain elevated,   
   with minimal severe potential.   
      
   ...Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley...   
   Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the   
   southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley ahead of a weak surface low   
   and cold front related to the lead upper trough/low. Latest NAM/RAP   
   forecast soundings across the surface warm sector this   
   afternoon/evening continue to show a substantial cap in place, which   
   combined with negligible large-scale ascent should act to inhibit   
   surface-based convective development. Low-level warm/moist advection   
   is expected to increase this evening/overnight as a southwesterly   
   low-level jet strengthens over the Ozarks/mid MS Valley. Most   
   guidance shows weak MUCAPE (around 500-1000 J/kg) with modest   
   mid-level lapse rates present. This should tend to limit the updraft   
   strength of scattered elevated convection that is forecast develop   
   tonight across MO into parts of southern IL, even in the presence of   
   moderate to strong deep-layer shear. While small/sub-severe hail may   
   occur with the stronger cores, the threat for severe hail appears   
   too limited to include low probabilities with this update.   
      
   ..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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