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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   503 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of northern and central California   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 171001Z - 171600Z   
      
   Summary...A stout mid-level wave west of Eureka was prompting   
   scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across a broad part of   
   northern and central California.  These trends will continue for   
   the next few hours, and areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates are   
   possible. A few instances of flash flooding could occur in   
   sensitive areas and near burn scars.   
      
   Discussion...A vigorous mid-level wave was providing ascent for   
   several areas of convection 1) just west of Eureka over open   
   Pacific waters and 2) along an axis from Redding south-southwest   
   to near Monterrey.  Over the past hour, more robust convective   
   activity (with lightning) developed near/south of San Francisco   
   and moved inland.  Both of these regimes were responsible for   
   areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates.  The Redding/Monterrey   
   convective band was being forced by a strong front moving   
   southeastward across the region.  PW values of 1 inch along and   
   ahead of the front near the coast was aiding in the heavier rain   
   rates.   
      
   Over time, as the aforementioned front shifts southward across the   
   state, strong upslope flow will aid in continued moderate to heavy   
   rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding especially along   
   upwind areas of the Sierra.  The front will also aid in occasional   
   bursts of heavier rainfall along coastal areas from Monterrey   
   southward toward the Transverse Ranges/Santa Barbara County   
   through 16Z/8a Pacific time.  Sensitive areas/burn scars could   
   experience another round of debris flows and excessive runoff.   
      
   Another more conditional risk for heavier rainfall will occur near   
   the center of the mid/upper trough near Eureka.  Slow-moving   
   convection was being supported by ascent from the trough and very   
   cold temps aloft (-20 to -24C @ 500 mb).  A conditional risk of   
   heavier rainfall occurring over land areas between Eureka and   
   Santa Rosa exists.  Flash flooding is also possible with this   
   activity.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!560lrQV056m3xGBG0stbT-bHIATx0Z9HQM1S20SgYEgnUXhKzyUrzp017a7UzT6gmk9-=   
   EVim_853cWsvqz4dxWXL1b0$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   41372415 41372308 41312155 40062055 37211977=20   
               35161959 34441983 34832081 36762232 38532342=20   
               39742426 40652451=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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