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   ACUS48 KWNS 170908   
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   SPC AC 170907   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0307 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   ...Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...   
      
   An upper trough over the Four Corners vicinity will eject   
   east/northeast into the Plains on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly   
   deep-layer flow will overspread portions of OK/TX toward the Ozarks   
   as this occurs. Warm advection ahead of the trough, coincident with   
   a weakening southerly low-level jet, will result in widespread   
   showers and thunderstorms across the region early Thursday. This may   
   temper destabilization despite rich boundary layer moisture.   
   Meanwhile, a surface low will modestly deepen near the OK/KS border,   
   and a north-south oriented cold front draped across west TX will   
   develop eastward through the period, with a warm front extending   
   west-east across central MO/southern IL. These boundaries may focus   
   some risk for stronger storms within a weak to moderately unstable   
   airmass. However, the magnitude of the severe risk still remains   
   uncertain given potential for widespread and possibly heavy   
   rainfall, somewhat weak low-level flow, and the weakening of the   
   upper trough as it shifts east/northeast during the evening. Severe   
   probabilities may become necessary is subsequent outlooks, but   
   uncertainty remains too high to include a 15 percent delineation at   
   this time.   
      
   ...Day 5/Fri - Mid/Lower MS and OH/TN Valley vicinity...   
      
   The surface cold front will continue to develop east/southeast   
   across the region on Friday/Friday night. Some low-end severe   
   potential could persist given rich boundary layer moisture and at   
   least modest buoyancy ahead of the front. However, persistent   
   rainfall and a weakening upper trough with veering/boundary-parallel   
   deep-layer flow will likely limit storm intensity.   
      
   ...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon...   
      
   Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the period and   
   forecast confidence is low. However, most guidance depicts some   
   version of an upper trough/low over the Southwest ejecting east   
   toward the Plains, but the differences in timing/intensity, etc   
   limit predictability. Some increase in severe potential could return   
   to portions of the southern Plains depending on how this potential   
   trough evolves and guidance trends will be monitored.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/17/2025   
      
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