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   FOUS11 KWBC 170805   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   305 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Mon Nov 17 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 20 2025   
      
   ...Northeast/Great Lakes...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A deep closed low now centered over the Canadian Maritimes will   
   begin to lift north this morning and then accelerate later in the   
   day. Supported by deep northwesterly to west-northwesterly winds in   
   its wake, ongoing orographic and lake effect snow showers will   
   continue but gradually wane through the day. The northern   
   Adirondacks, Green, and White mountains will remain the focus for   
   upslope snows, with some potential for several more inches in some   
   spots, especially along the northern Greens, where WPC   
   probabilities for additional accumulations exceeding 4 inches   
   remain high.   
      
   Further to the west, there is a decent signal for a single band   
   intensifying off of Lake Ontario and shifting east across the   
   Finger Lakes, with WPC probabilities indicating several inches are   
   possible east-southeast of Syracuse.   
      
   Lastly, the band off of Lake Erie with a connection extending back   
   to Lake Superior is expected to wane and shift east, most likely   
   producing just another inch or two across parts of southwestern New   
   York and northwestern Pennsylvania today.   
      
   ...California to the Central and Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   An upper low will move across Colorado and Wyoming this morning.   
   Snow will continue to fall this morning across the western and   
   south-central Wyoming ranges, as well as the western Colorado   
   mountains, with additional accumulations remaining light for most   
   areas. Favorable upper jet-streak forcing along with moist   
   southwesterly flow may support some higher totals along the Sierra   
   Madre, Park Range, and Medicine Bow mountains in south-central   
   Wyoming and north-central Colorado. WPC probabilities indicate   
   additional totals over 4 inches are likely, especially for areas   
   above 8,000 ft.   
      
   A second low closing off within the base of a sharp trough   
   approaching northern California will continue to deepen and drop   
   south along the coast through today into early tomorrow. This   
   system is expected to linger as it settles along the southern   
   California coast tomorrow before rotating inland as yet another   
   Pacific system moves toward California late Wednesday into   
   Thursday.   
      
   Areas of heavy snow are forecast to spread south along the Sierra   
   Nevada today, before diminishing tonight, but with light amounts   
   continuing across parts of the central and southern Sierra through   
   Tuesday. WPC probabilities indicate that two-day totals are likely   
   to exceed 8 inches for many locations in the central Sierra above   
   8,000 ft. Some locally heavy totals, exceeding 8 inches, are also   
   expected farther east in parts of the central and southern Nevada   
   ranges, and the southwestern Utah mountains.   
      
   ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   The previously noted low exiting the Rockies today is forecast to   
   move steadily east from the Central Plains into the mid and upper   
   Mississippi Valley tonight. Low to mid level frontogenesis along   
   with a coupled upper jet will support a stripe of moderate   
   precipitation developing from eastern South Dakota, through   
   southern Minnesota, into southern Wisconsin tonight. Dynamic   
   cooling will support rain changing to snow where this heavier band   
   sets up. While probabilities for accumulations beyond an inch or   
   two remain low, the potential for locally heavier amounts cannot be   
   ruled out.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   $$   
      
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