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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0138 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southwest into the   
   southern Plains vicinity Wednesday into early Thursday.   
      
   ...Southern Plains...   
      
   An upper trough is expected to be oriented from the western Great   
   Basin toward southern CA/northern Baja Wednesday morning, and track   
   slowly eastward toward the Four Corners/southern Rockies by Thursday   
   morning. Forecast guidance has trended slowly with the eastward   
   ejection of the upper trough. As a result, stronger southwesterly   
   flow, and a strengthening low-level jet are not expected to develop   
   over portions of the southern Rockies into OK/TX until after 00-06z.   
   This will also delay any stronger forcing for ascent until late in   
   the forecast period.   
      
   At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf   
   moisture northward across TX/OK and the south-central states.   
   Forecast soundings suggest capping in the 850-700 mb layer will   
   persist for much of the diurnal period. Given nebulous forcing,   
   outside of persistent, modest warm advection, it is unclear if/how   
   much convection may develop across the warm sector during the day.   
   The 00z RRFS suggests elevated convection may develop near the   
   moisture gradient/surface trough across west-central TX and toward   
   the Red River in southwest OK by late afternoon. While vertical   
   shear would support at least loosely organized convection, low to   
   midlevel flow will be somewhat weak, and elevated instability modest   
   (generally less than 1000 J/kg). Later in the period (after 06z),   
   large-scale ascent will increase and a modest southerly low-level   
   jet should intensify as the upper trough approaches NM. Additional   
   convection may develop late Wednesday night into early Thursday   
   morning amid a stronger mass response.   
      
   Some risk for marginal hail could accompany stronger convection.   
   However, confidence is low regarding coverage, intensity and timing   
   of any more organized/stronger storm development, especially given   
   the trend toward a more slowly/later ejecting trough. Will hold off   
   introducing severe probabilities at this time, but probs could   
   become necessary with later updates.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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