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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 170543   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 170541   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1141 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening into early Tuesday   
   morning across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Ozarks   
   and mid Mississippi Valley. Additional storms are possible across   
   the Southwest and central California. A few strong storms are   
   possible in the Midwest, but severe-thunderstorm potential appears   
   low at this time.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   05 UTC satellite imagery depicts a progressive upper wave traversing   
   the central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, a broad low/mid-level   
   baroclinic zone was analyzed from the central Plains southeastward   
   into the lower MS River Valley. This diffuse boundary is expected to   
   lift northward as an effective warm frontal zone as   
   south/southwesterly winds strengthen ahead of the approaching upper   
   wave. Strong isentropic ascent and moistening near 850 mb should   
   support isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms from the   
   northern Plains into the Midwest/mid-MS River Valley. Across the   
   West, a second upper trough will continue to dig southward along the   
   CA coast. Cold temperatures aloft combined with broad scale ascent   
   should promote isolated, though weak, thunderstorms.   
      
   ...Mid-MS Valley...   
   50-60 knot mid-level flow associated with the upper wave will   
   overspread much of MO/IL during the overnight hours as isentropic   
   ascent increases and thunderstorm coverage is maximized. While wind   
   profiles appear to show adequate deep-layer shear for organized   
   convection, most forecast soundings depict modest lapse rates and   
   narrow buoyancy profiles, which should modulate overall updraft   
   intensities. This limitation is reflected in recent CAM solutions,   
   which uniformly show very weak signals for strong updrafts or UH   
   tracks. Consequently, confidence in a severe threat remains too   
   limited for risk probabilities, but a few instances of   
   small/near-severe hail appear possible.   
      
   ..Moore/Darrow.. 11/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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