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   ACUS02 KWNS 170608   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 170606   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1206 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi   
   and Lower Ohio Valleys on Tuesday, additional isolated thunderstorms   
   are expected across parts of the Southwest. Severe potential appears   
   limited at this time.   
      
   ...Ohio Valley Vicinity...   
      
   An upper shortwave trough over the Mid/Lower MO Valley will develop   
   east across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday evening, before arriving   
   over the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. A belt of enhanced   
   westerly flow will overspread the region as this occurs. At the   
   surface, a weak low over the Ozark Plateau early in the day will   
   weaken, with little surface cyclogenesis tied to the upper trough.   
   Building high pressure over the Great Lakes will allow for a weak   
   cold front to develop south/southeast across the Mid-South/Lower   
   Ohio Valley through the period, and will limit northward progression   
   of any deeper boundary-layer moisture.   
      
   Most forecast guidance suggests convection will be ongoing Tuesday   
   morning. This activity will occur on the nose a southwesterly   
   low-level jet within a broad warm advection regime. This elevated   
   convection may produce small hail in stronger updrafts, but overall   
   severe potential is expected to remain limited as convection   
   develops east of the better instability/moist axis. During the late   
   afternoon or evening, additional storms may develop along the   
   surface boundary. Surface-based instability is expected to remain   
   minimal given convection earlier in the day, modest boundary layer   
   moisture, and increasing inhibition with loss of daytime heating.   
   Low to midlevel flow also will veer during the evening as the upper   
   trough passes to the north and east. Small hail could once again   
   accompany the strongest storms, but overall severe potential appears   
   low.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
      
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible as an upper low moves southeast   
   across southern CA/northern Baja. Modest midlevel moisture within a   
   warm advection regime ahead of this system will support enough   
   instability for occasional thunderstorms across portions of the   
   Lower CO Valley/southern NV/much of AZ. Severe storms are not   
   expected.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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