TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166752.weather@1:2320/105 2d823403   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 170055   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 170054   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0654 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 170100Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states   
   and parts of California through late tonight. Severe thunderstorms   
   are not expected.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough passing over the Four   
   Corners region with a second upper wave approaching the CA coast.   
   Thunderstorm chances overnight will be associated with these two   
   features as lift ahead of the waves drives weak convection. Over the   
   Four Corners, weak buoyancy (sampled by the 00z ABQ sounding) will   
   continue to wane with thunderstorm coverage likely decreasing   
   through 12z across the region. Across CA, thunderstorm coverage will   
   likely increase through early morning as the upper wave moves   
   onshore, though overall buoyancy profiles will remain too limited   
   for robust convection. A few strikes appear possible around 12z   
   Monday across parts of the Texarkana region within a warm frontal   
   zone, but recent model consensus suggests thunderstorm coverage   
   should remain below 10% through the end of the forecast period.   
      
   ..Moore.. 11/17/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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