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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0112 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio   
   Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of   
   the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few   
   strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively   
   low at this time.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Midwest to the   
   Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Mid-level ridging will build into the   
   central CONUS ahead of a larger trough pivoting across southern   
   California and the Southwest. A frontal zone will persist from the   
   Ohio Valley to north Texas with low to mid 60s dewpoints to the   
   south of the front.   
      
   ...Lower Ohio Valley...   
   Elevated thunderstorms with small hail may be ongoing at the   
   beginning of the period across the Lower Ohio Valley, on the nose of   
   the low-level jet. A few strong storms may continue through the   
   morning, but should wane by the afternoon as the low-level jet   
   continues to veer/weaken and the thunderstorm activity moves east of   
   the better instability axis. While some surface based instability is   
   forecast along the frontal zone during the afternoon, subsidence in   
   the wake of the morning activity should suppress any additional   
   surface based thunderstorm activity.   
      
   Tuesday night, thunderstorms may develop along the frontal zone in   
   the southern Plains as modest enhancement of the low-level jet   
   occurs ahead of the next trough. However, storm coverage appears   
   isolated at this time.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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