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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1046 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday evening into early   
   Tuesday morning across parts of the central/northern Plains into the   
   Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Additional storms are possible   
   across the Southwest and central California. A few strong storms are   
   possible in the Midwest, but severe-thunderstorm potential appears   
   low at this time.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level shortwave trough will cross the Plains and move into the   
   Ozarks and Midwest on Monday while a mid-level trough amplifies   
   across southern California. A strong trough will persist across the   
   Northeast. A surface low will move from the central High Plains to   
   the Ozarks on Monday with increasing low-level moisture to its   
   southeast.   
      
   ...Mid-Mississippi Valley...   
   As the mid-level trough advances eastward on Monday, the low-level   
   jet will strengthen across the eastern Plains and into the Ozarks.   
   This will result in increasing elevated instability through the day.   
   The strongest isentropic ascent appears to be mostly north of the   
   greatest instability. This casts some doubt on storm coverage where   
   the most favorable environment is present. Therefore, a few strong   
   storms capable of small hail are likely, but confidence in large   
   hail is not high enough for severe weather probabilities at this   
   time.   
      
   Farther west, thunderstorms are expected beneath the cold   
   upper-level low but instability should remain too limited for a   
   severe weather threat.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 11/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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