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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 161234   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 161232   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0632 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 161300Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states   
   today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe   
   thunderstorms are not expected.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   An upper trough/low over CA this morning will move   
   east-northeastward across the Great Basin/Southwest today while   
   acquiring a negative tilt. Although low-level moisture will remain   
   quite limited, cool temperatures and modestly steepened lapse rates   
   aloft associated with the upper trough/low may support convection   
   deep enough to generate occasional lightning flashes across parts of   
   the Four Corners states into WY. A separate upper trough will   
   approach the West Coast late tonight, with large-scale ascent   
   associated with a strong mid-level jet overspreading parts of CA.   
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/ahead of a cold front tonight   
   through early Monday morning across this area. For all regions, weak   
   instability is expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorms,   
   although gusty winds may occur with the stronger cores.   
      
   ..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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