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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0359 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 191200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   ...D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday...   
   An increase in severe potential remains evident across the   
   south-central CONUS from D4/Wednesday into D5/Thursday, but   
   uncertainty remains regarding many details and the overall magnitude   
   of the threat. Guidance is in somewhat better agreement regarding   
   the timing of the closed mid/upper-level low and attendant trough   
   that will move from the Southwest toward the south-central Plains   
   from late Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing may remain somewhat   
   nebulous during the day on Wednesday, but storms that may develop   
   late Tuesday night could continue into Wednesday morning, while   
   isolated diurnal development will be possible across the broader   
   warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized   
   storms, but low-level flow is generally forecast to be rather weak   
   until late Wednesday night.   
      
   As the approaching trough impinges upon rich boundary-layer moisture   
   and a reservoir of moderate buoyancy, storm development will become   
   increasingly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday, along/ahead   
   of a north/south-oriented cold front that will move east across the   
   southern/central Plains. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for   
   storm organization, while low-level flow/shear should increase as a   
   surface low deepens and moves northeastward across the central   
   Plains. Some severe threat may expand from the southern Plains into   
   parts of the lower MO and mid MS Valleys with time on Thursday,   
   though buoyancy will become increasingly scant with northward   
   extent.   
      
   Given the late arrival of stronger large-scale ascent and low-level   
   mass response on Wednesday night, and the anticipated widespread   
   storm coverage on Thursday, the magnitude of available buoyancy and   
   the resulting severe threat remain uncertain. These uncertainties   
   appear to be reflected in the relatively broad and modest   
   probabilities from available calibrated guidance. However, given the   
   likelihood of a strong ejecting trough impinging upon anomalous   
   low-level moisture, severe probabilities will likely be needed in   
   subsequent outlooks.   
      
   ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday...   
   Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern becomes rather low by   
   late week into next weekend. Some severe threat could spread into   
   parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley on Friday, though buoyancy   
   will become increasingly limited. Some guidance (such as the 16/00Z   
   ECMWF) depicts another deep trough moving across the southern Plains   
   next weekend, though spread regarding this potential system is quite   
   large within other extended-range guidance.   
      
   ..Dean.. 11/16/2025   
      
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