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   ACUS03 KWNS 160831   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 160830   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0230 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio   
   Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of   
   the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few   
   strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively   
   low at this time.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid/upper-level low and attendant deep trough are forecast to move   
   slowly eastward across the Southwest on Tuesday. Farther east, a   
   low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly   
   east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic. A   
   surface low initially over the east-central Plains is forecast to   
   move eastward and weaken, as a trailing cold front stalls over parts   
   of the Ozarks and southern Plains, before returning northward as a   
   warm front late in the period.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into parts of the OH/TN Valleys...   
   Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across   
   parts of the mid MS and OH Valleys, which will tend to spread   
   eastward toward the TN Valley and parts of the Appalachians.   
   Uncertainties regarding the magnitude of elevated buoyancy will   
   continue into early D3/Tuesday from D2/Monday, but a few strong   
   storms capable of small to near-severe hail cannot be ruled out   
   before the low-level warm-advection regime begins to weaken and   
   convection moves into a more stable environment.   
      
   Later in the day into Tuesday night, seasonably rich boundary-layer   
   moisture will stream northward into a larger portion of OK and west   
   TX, as the initial weak surface boundary effectively becomes a warm   
   front. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will be   
   conditionally supportive of organized convection, though most   
   guidance currently suggests that stronger large-scale ascent   
   associated with the approaching trough across the Southwest will   
   remain west of the expanding buoyancy reservoir through the end of   
   the period.   
      
   Very isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front   
   during the afternoon and evening, though any such development may   
   struggle to intensify in the absence of stronger forcing. A somewhat   
   greater chance for robust (though likely somewhat elevated) storm   
   development may evolve late in the period across parts of west TX   
   into southwest OK, in response to a modestly strengthening low-level   
   jet. The 16/00Z GFS/RRFS are currently the most aggressive regarding   
   storm development prior to 12Z Wednesday morning, but if other   
   guidance trends in that direction, then severe probabilities may   
   eventually be needed.   
      
   ..Dean.. 11/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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