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   FOUS11 KWBC 160800   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   300 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 16 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 19 2025   
      
   ...Northeast/Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A vigorous shortwave will slide east of the Great Lakes this   
   morning, with a closed upper center forecast to develop over New   
   England later today. At the surface, a low pressure center is   
   expected to redevelop along the Maine coast this morning and track   
   east into southern New Brunswick by this evening. This track will   
   support snow across interior Maine, with rain along the coast,   
   followed by a transition to snow as far south as Downeast Maine as   
   the low tracks into Canada. The heaviest amounts across Maine are   
   likely to center over the North Woods, with WPC probabilities   
   continuing to indicate that amounts over 4 inches are likely to   
   cover the region, with locally heavier amounts over 8 inches   
   possible in the higher terrain.   
      
   Meanwhile, any lingering mixed precipitation from the overnight   
   falling over northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire is   
   likely to transition to all snow early in the period, with upslope   
   snow beginning to ramp up this morning. Little change to the   
   previous forecast, with northwest flow targeting parts of the   
   northern Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites with the best chance for   
   significant accumulations. The heaviest accumulations are expected   
   today. But with some additional accumulations continuing through   
   Monday, two day totals likely expected to top a foot in some   
   locations, especially in the northern Greens and the Presidential   
   Range.   
      
   The cold air advection and west-northwesterly to northwesterly   
   flow will support multiple lake effect bands off of Lake Ontario,   
   producing some locally heavy totals around the Finger Lakes. A   
   narrow intense single band with connections to lakes Superior and   
   Huron may set up downwind of Lake Erie, resulting in some locally   
   heavy totals near the far western New York-Pennsylvania border   
   into northwestern Pennsylvania. These are reflected in some higher   
   WPC probabilities for snowfall amounts exceeding 4 inches in those   
   areas.   
      
   ...California to the Central and Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A pair of upper lows will impact the region this period. The first   
   system, which is currently, producing widespread precipitation   
   across central to southern California and parts of Nevada and   
   Arizona this morning, is forecast to lift northeast across   
   southern California into the Great Basin later today, before   
   continuing east across the central Rockies tonight into early   
   Monday. This will be followed by a highly amplified shortwave   
   dropping out of the northeastern Pacific, with a closed low   
   developing near the northern California coast tomorrow. This second   
   system is then expected to continue to drop south, moving into   
   southern California on Tuesday.   
      
   For the leading low, additional accumulations of 6 inches or more   
   are likely for parts of the Sierra Nevada, mainly for areas above   
   9000 ft in the southern Sierra and above 7000 ft in the central to   
   northern Sierra. Farther to the east, this system may produce   
   similar totals, mostly for areas above 9000 ft, across the southern   
   Utah mountains and the Rockies from areas as far south as the San   
   Juans to as far north as the Teton and Wind River ranges.   
      
   Heavy accumulations with the second low will focus mostly on the   
   Sierra Nevada once again, with early Monday to early Wednesday two-day   
   totals expected to exceed 8 inches for many areas above 7000 ft in   
   the central Sierra. Some of the higher elevations in the central   
   and southern Nevada and the southern Utah mountains, as well as   
   the San Juans could also see locally heavy totals.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   $$   
      
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