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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 160700   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 160658   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1258 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025   
      
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday evening into early   
   Tuesday morning across parts of the central Plains into the Ozarks   
   and mid Mississippi Valley. A few strong storms are possible, but   
   severe-thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the   
   central Plains toward the mid MS Valley through the period. Upstream   
   of this shortwave, a stronger and more amplified upper trough will   
   dig southeastward across California. A surface low associated with   
   the lead shortwave is forecast to move across the central Plains. In   
   response to this surface low, seasonably rich low-level moisture   
   will advect northward from TX/LA into parts of OK/AR/MO.   
      
   ...Southern/central Plains into parts of the mid MS and OH   
   Valleys...   
   Moderate destabilization is expected Monday afternoon from parts of   
   TX into eastern OK. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized   
   convection, but there is currently little signal for diurnal storm   
   development across the warm sector, likely due to lingering capping   
   and generally weak large-scale ascent (with stronger ascent   
   displaced to the north).   
      
   Farther north, elevated convection is expected to develop within a   
   low-level warm-advection regime from parts of the Ozarks into the   
   mid MS and OH Valleys, mainly during the evening and overnight   
   hours. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of MUCAPE,   
   though relatively strong deep-layer flow could support some modest   
   storm organization. Small to near-severe hail could accompany the   
   strongest storms. If confidence increases in sufficient   
   destabilization and robust elevated convection within this regime,   
   then severe probabilities may eventually be needed.   
      
   ..Dean.. 11/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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