TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166725.weather@1:2320/105 2d812242   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 160528   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 160526   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1126 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states   
   and along the California coast late tonight. Severe storms are not   
   expected.   
      
   ...Western U.S...   
      
   Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for   
   robust convection across the CONUS Sunday. Even so, isolated   
   thunderstorms are expected across a few areas of the western U.S.,   
   primarily ahead of two strong troughs. The lead midlevel trough will   
   eject across the lower CO River Valley early in the period with   
   high-level diffluent flow spreading across the Four Corners region   
   during the afternoon. This feature will eject as a negative-tilted   
   trough resulting in cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse   
   rates. Forecast soundings exhibit meager instability, but likely   
   adequate for lightning in the strongest updrafts.   
      
   A secondary trough is forecast to approach the northern CA Coast   
   during the latter half of the period. 500mb speed max will dig   
   toward the back side of this feature, but not advance inland until   
   later in the day2 period. At this time it appears the synoptic front   
   will approach the northern CA Coast around 17/12z, along with a bit   
   more instability beneath the approaching trough. Most lightning   
   activity should remain offshore, but isolated storms may approach   
   the Coast by the end of the period.   
      
   ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 4/0 19/10 88/0 90/0 93/1 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 128/187 129/14 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 200 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 880/1 900/0 102 106 902/0 19   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 904/0 13 905/0 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5019/40 5020/400   
   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 341/66 902/26 229/426