TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166723.weather@1:2320/105 2d80e13a   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 160050   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 160049   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0649 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Valid 160100Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the upper Ohio   
   Valley through late evening.   
      
   00 UTC surface observations show a cold front pushing eastward   
   across the Midwest/OH River Valley. Recent radar imagery shows the   
   initial development of weak thunderstorms along/ahead of the front,   
   which are expected to increase in coverage through 04 UTC across   
   portions of the upper OH Valley. VWP observations are currently   
   sampling 40-50 knot winds within the lowest kilometer, which may   
   manifest at the surface as strong, damaging wind gusts within the   
   deeper convective cores. Additionally, the strong low-level flow is   
   supporting 0-1 km SRH values on the order of 400 m2/2. While   
   typically a concerning value, the meager buoyancy in place across   
   the region (MLCAPE of around 150-200 J/kg per recent ILN and PIT   
   soundings) and residual capping near 750 mb should modulate overall   
   updraft intensities and the potential for a tornado threat. CAM   
   guidance seems to support this idea with negligible updraft speed/UH   
   signals noted among recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs. As such, the   
   predominant threat should remain damaging gusts through the 04 to 06   
   UTC period.   
      
   ..Moore.. 11/16/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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