TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166722.weather@1:2320/105 2d80caae   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 152314   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 152314=20   
   PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-160145-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2205   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0514 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Areas affected...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...far western   
   New York and northern West Virginia   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 152314Z - 160145Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may develop over the next few   
   hours. This activity should mostly be non-severe, but isolated   
   strong gusts or small hail may occur through the evening.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to develop into southwest   
   Ontario and extending southwestward across western OH. Daytime   
   heating as well as southwest winds ahead of this front has resulted   
   in a plume of 50s F dewpoints, with minimal instability due to cool   
   surface temperatures.   
      
   Although diurnal heating is lost, eventual cooling aloft across   
   northern parts of the area may maintain at least marginal elevated   
   instability due to steepening midlevel lapse rates. Sufficient   
   large-scale lift of the relatively moist air mass ahead of the front   
   may then yield scattered thunderstorms from eastern OH into PA and   
   vicinity. Due to the weak instability, severe weather is not   
   anticipated. However, strong winds just off the surface of 40+ kt   
   may yield locally enhanced wind gusts with any downdrafts.   
      
   ..Jewell/Hart.. 11/15/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!41grqZ6IpjRuvon41XErZ5X-EEHp_UIT4y-92YhyhdeMWJ5QMcqRPhcu8dR-mmRW_dL3vYgIx=   
   zwJT3woaKXlVn1XAec$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...   
      
   LAT...LON   39258237 39848277 41548087 42138004 42607899 42507817   
               41557815 39807926 39528015 39258237=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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