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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1226   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   335 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southern CA   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 152033Z - 160230Z   
      
   SUMMARY...The flash flood threat will continue for coastal CA into   
   the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges through 02Z. While the   
   main/widespread threat of flash flooding is expected to wane over   
   the next couple of hours, a lingering threat for more localized   
   but potentially significant flash flooding will remain.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery at 20Z showed a band of moderate   
   to heavy rain that extended from the southern San Joaquin Valley   
   into some of the Valley/Desert regions east of the Peninsular   
   Ranges. This axis of heavier rain has been following a plume of   
   highly anomalous moisture translating eastward as seen on OSPO   
   ALPW imagery, out ahead of a negatively tilted mid to upper level   
   shortwave trough axis and vorticity max just west of the CA/MX   
   border. Additional heavy rainfall appeared in the waters just east   
   of Santa Catalina and San Clemente Islands, tied to the eastern   
   lobe of the mid/upper level shortwave. Rainfall over the past 6   
   hours has peaked near 1 inch for coastal locations into the   
   Peninsular Ranges while 1 to 2+ inch values have been observed   
   within portions of the Transverse Ranges, with hourly rainfall   
   between 0.5 and ~1.0 inches.   
      
   While relatively drier air was moving into southern CA as of 20Z,   
   the moisture remains anomalous with PW values of ~1.0 to 1.3   
   inches and despite continued drying of the layer, sufficient   
   moisture will remain through the evening to support localized high   
   rainfall rate potential. As the closed upper low center continues   
   to slowly edge closer to the coast, 700-500 mb lapse rates will   
   increase into the 6.5 to 7.0 C/km range and support localized   
   MLCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg near the coast. Lift will also   
   be aided by left-exit region divergence/diffluence corresponding   
   to a 100 kt upper level jet max positioned south of the upper low   
   center. Hourly rainfall in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range is expected,   
   though localized spot training could exceed these values and/or   
   support 0.5 to 1 inch of rain in about 30 minutes. The combination   
   of continued forcing and increased ground sensitivity due to   
   today's rainfall will likely support continued areas of flash   
   flooding over the next few hours. This will especially be true   
   where additional areas of heavy rain overlap with urban areas and   
   burn scars where localized higher impacts could occur. Within   
   sensitive burn scar regions, high rain rates are likely to result   
   in mudslides and debris flows.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!_j_67JJhFHvq_oLXeomayUqUVfoafWQU8SimSG6NwI_NxuB5p1MdyqdZT-jj6t1orl4x=   
   bP4V2_PJ0kcdmAeJVjLQtOk$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...VEF...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35541966 35531858 35111811 34381686 33961642=20   
               33361612 32881611 32461613 32451668 32421710=20   
               32521739 32741783 33201827 33431858 33891947=20   
               34462098 35302118=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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