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   AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160115-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1225   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   219 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Desert regions of CA into southern NV and far   
   western AZ   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 151917Z - 160115Z   
      
   Summary...Periods of heavy rain should become likely across the   
   desert regions of eastern/southern CA into southern NV and far   
   western AZ through 01Z. Peak hourly rainfall between 0.5 and 1.0   
   inches (locally higher) is expected which may result in isolated   
   to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.   
      
   Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery across southern CA into southern   
   NV at 19Z showed an arcing band of heavy showers continuing to   
   move inland, from the Peninsular Ranges toward the far southern   
   San Joaquin Valley. Observed hourly rainfall within this axis has   
   been in the 0.5 to 0.9 inch range over the past 2-3 hours.   
   Additional showers were noted from just west of the lower CO River   
   into western Clark County in southern NV with MRMS-derived hourly   
   rainfall in excess of 1 inch in eastern Imperial County. These   
   showers were forced in response to lift ahead of a negatively   
   tilted shortwave trough located ~100 miles off of the southern CA   
   coast, swinging toward interior southern CA. In addition,   
   divergence and diffluence were increasing across southern CA   
   within the left-exit region of a 90-110 kt upper level jet max   
   located just south of the shortwave trough axis. Moisture was   
   highly anomalous for mid-November with regional PW standardized   
   anomalies of 4 to 5+ throughout the area, with a source region   
   stemming from the tropical eastern Pacific as seen on OSPO ALPW   
   imagery.   
      
   As the closed low and negatively tilted shortwave trough continues   
   to advance east over the next 6 hours, low level moisture will   
   continue to advect into the deserts with a transient swath of 6.0   
   to 6.5 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates (coincident with the shortwave)   
   which should help to briefly boost instability, despite the lack   
   of surface heating beneath clouds/rain. Also of note were the   
   850-700 mb winds oriented from the southeast at 30-35 kt over   
   south-central CA, forcing an upslope component along the eastern   
   slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada. With little change to the   
   low to mid-level wind fields anticipated over the next 3-6 hours,   
   steady upslope forced heavy rain is expected into the terrain.   
   Farther east, embedded higher rainfall rates are expected to   
   develop through the afternoon within the scattered   
   shower/stratiform rain regime. While CAPE values are generally   
   forecast to stay below 500 J/kg (outside of the lower CO Valley),   
   the anomalous moisture source should contribute to embedded higher   
   rainfall values with periods of brief training, allowing for   
   hourly rainfall in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range (locally higher).   
   Peak total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected (locally higher   
   near terrain) through 01Z which may result in areas of flash   
   flooding.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!9thXAR0MeAzY90w6Y5yt960fJNwMeBjCZqbAGy3VOG4ggdTCBbyCvWQaMI4GnO868aiI=   
   9KlPp1Z91dR8bBP6ueFEqGI$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...LOX...PSR...REV...SGX...VEF...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   38051725 37481583 36161447 35111412 33431409=20   
               32231432 32471532 32481594 33171615 33501626=20   
               33671637 33951653 34111664 34231678 34311702=20   
               34391729 34501763 34651808 34781841 34911860=20   
               35061867 35231863 35381859 35491856 35641849=20   
               35721842 35801837 35891833 35961828 36081823=20   
               36181815 36311810 36411813 36481817 36601822=20   
               36661826 36751829 36851834 36931837 37031839=20   
               37121843 37211847 37261852 37321860 37421865=20   
               37621866 37861848 38041808=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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