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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 151632   
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   SPC AC 151630   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1030 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Valid 151630Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO   
   INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the upper Ohio   
   Valley late this afternoon and evening.   
      
   ...Upper Ohio Valley...   
   Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over   
   the Upper Great Lakes.  This mid-level trough will quickly move east   
   into the Lower Great Lakes vicinity by early evening with an   
   attendant increase in large-scale forcing for ascent expected to   
   spread across the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions.   
   Although primary cyclone development will occur from eastern Lake   
   Superior eastward to the VT/Quebec region, a cold front will push   
   southeastward across the Great Lakes into the central Appalachians   
   during the period.  Despite low-level theta-e advection into the   
   region from the lower OH Valley, the overall magnitude of   
   destabilization will be limited in part due to considerable cloud   
   cover thwarting greater heating.  Models show surface dewpoints   
   rising into the upper 50s beneath a capping inversion by late   
   afternoon.  Weak instability and the aforementioned forcing will aid   
   in the eventual development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms   
   probably in the form of one primary band of convection towards early   
   evening.  Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are the primary   
   concern, with convection expected to weaken with eastward extent   
   into central PA this evening due to meager instability with the loss   
   of daytime heating.   
      
   ...Southern California/Southwest...   
   A potent mid-level speed max translating through the base of a   
   trough west of southern CA/Baja CA will move into the Mojave Desert   
   later today.  Pockets of weak instability will likely develop today   
   and favor isolated bouts of deeper convection across southern CA   
   into the lower CO River Valley.  Despite strengthening mid-level   
   flow fields, muted lapse rates will likely limit storm intensity and   
   the propensity for strong/locally damaging gusts.   
      
   ..Smith/Marsh.. 11/15/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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