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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 151232   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 151230   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0630 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Valid 151300Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE OHIO VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind   
   gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late this afternoon and   
   evening.   
      
   ...Ohio Valley...   
   Large-scale ascent will spread across the OH Valley today ahead of a   
   mid-level shortwave trough that will dig across the Great Lakes by   
   this evening. An associated surface low will develop eastward across   
   southern Ontario, with a cold front extending southward across the   
   OH Valley/Midwest. This front will serve as the primary focus for   
   isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Only modest   
   daytime heating is forecast ahead of the front, which combined with   
   limited low-level moisture should temper the amount of surface-based   
   instability that can develop. Even so, a strongly sheared   
   environment is expected given the strength of the low/mid-level flow   
   forecast. Recent high-resolution guidance suggests weak frontal   
   convection should develop by late afternoon/early evening across   
   eastern OH/western PA and vicinity. Strong to locally damaging wind   
   gusts are the primary concern, with convection expected to weaken   
   with eastward extent into central PA this evening due to meager   
   instability with the loss of daytime heating.   
      
   ...Southern California/Southwest...   
   A strong (60-80 kt) 500 mb speed maximum will translate through the   
   base of an upper trough and develop towards the northern Baja   
   Peninsula by midday, with high-level diffluent flow forecast across   
   southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Recent guidance continues   
   to suggest an associated surface front will move inland later today,   
   and cooling post-frontal thermal profiles aloft will lead to weak   
   instability that should favor occasional lightning within deeper   
   convective updrafts. Pre-frontal convection is expected to be only   
   weakly buoyant across the Lower CO River Valley due to poor lapse   
   rates, which should limit updraft strength. While post-frontal   
   destabilization may lead to more robust updrafts, weaker shear in   
   this regime does not appear favorable for severe winds, but small   
   hail could occur.   
      
   ..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/15/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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