TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 166701.weather@1:2320/105 2d8012e1   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   AWUS01 KWNH 151010   
   FFGMPD   
   CAZ000-152209-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1224   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   510 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southern California   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 151009Z - 152209Z   
      
   Summary...Heavy rainfall will become more likely - especially   
   beginning around the 14Z/6a Pacific timeframe.  Rain rates   
   reaching 1 inch/hr are possible with this activity.  Flash flood   
   potential will increase - especially across burn scars and other   
   low-lying, urban, and sensitive areas.   
      
   Discussion...Convection was beginning to deepen and move northward   
   across open waters adjacent to the southern California coastline   
   this morning.  This convection was materializing in response to a   
   deep cutoff low centered near 32N, 124.5W that was beginning a   
   slow migration eastward toward the discussion area.  On the   
   eastern periphery of this low, a very moist airmass was in place,   
   with PW values ranging from 1 inch near coastal areas to 1.6 inch   
   just offshore.  Weak instability and modest forcing for ascent   
   over land areas are limiting factors for heavier rainfall   
   potential in the short-term and toward 14Z or so.   
      
   Later this morning, a belt of stronger southerly flow at 850mb   
   will develop toward coastal areas extending from the LA Basin   
   southward along the San Diego County coastline.  Some of this flow   
   will interact favorably with coastal ranges (particularly the   
   Transverse) to promote an increasing risk of heavier rainfall.=20   
   Quick moistening is also expected to accompany this flow over   
   those areas.  Rain rates should come up in tandem with approaching   
   ascent and orographic lift, and areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates   
   should occur on a more frequent basis.  At least a few instances   
   of flash flooding/excessive runoff are expected.  Furthermore,   
   these rain rates should occur over local burn scars, prompting   
   dangerous debris flows in some areas.  Locally significant impacts   
   will become possible in this regime.   
      
   Heavy rain potential will persist through at least 2200Z/1p   
   Pacific Time today and beyond as the upstream mid-level wave makes   
   only slow/gradual progress toward land areas.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!7NmB96X_gKbvDQtUDkadiStzOtx5MFz8wPRwxfJkWWbtUL3__jOs9ytla2zeqyDQiJR4=   
   -PFtCV8FgDw9DOF9htvwyZs$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   35351981 35191853 34841736 34211654 33441614=20   
               32791601 32561639 32561714 33101753 33641831=20   
               34191949 34552052 35082065=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 4/0 19/10 88/0 90/0 93/1 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 128/187 129/14 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700   
   SEEN-BY: 218/840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114   
   SEEN-BY: 229/110 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 200 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 880/1 900/0 102 106 902/0 19   
   SEEN-BY: 902/26 904/0 13 905/0 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5019/40 5020/400   
   SEEN-BY: 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 341/66 902/26 229/426