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   ACUS48 KWNS 150846   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 150845   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025   
      
   Valid 181200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Upper-level ridging over the Plains on Day 4/Tue will develop   
   eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS through Day 5/Wed as a   
   western upper trough slowly ejects over the Rockies and into the   
   Plains around Day 6/Thu. Gulf moisture will return northward across   
   the southern Plains and south-central states ahead of the ejecting   
   upper trough. Isolated strong to severe storms may be possible on   
   Wednesday across the southern Plains and Ozarks vicinity in a warm   
   advection regime ahead of the upper trough. By Day 6/Thu, the upper   
   trough should progress east across the Plains toward the Mississippi   
   Valley, with a surface cold front sweeping eastward as this occurs,   
   and some severe potential could accompany widespread thunderstorm   
   activity ahead of the front.   
      
   Confidence in coverage of severe storms Day 5-6/Wed-Thu is   
   uncertain. Large spread (and poor run-to-run consistency) exists   
   among forecast guidance. The GFS and ECMWF-AIFS are more similar   
   compared to the dynamical ECMWF, indicating a slower ejecting trough   
   and only modest surface cyclogenesis until late Thursday when the   
   low ejects northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes.   
   Furthermore, while strong southwesterly flow will overspread   
   northward returning Gulf moisture across the Plains and   
   south-central states, forcing for ascent will be somewhat limited on   
   Wednesday as the trough ejects more slowly. As the trough ejects on   
   Thursday and a cold front becomes a focus for storm development,   
   boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a northeastward ejecting   
   cyclone may favor a more anafrontal, training convection/heavy   
   rainfall scenario. While severe potential certainly is in play for   
   Days 5-6/Wed-Thu, these uncertainties preclude 15 percent   
   probabilities at this time.   
      
   Beyond Day 6/Thu, model disparity increases substantially and   
   predictability is low.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/15/2025   
      
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