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   ACUS01 KWNS 150524   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 150523   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1123 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025   
      
   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF   
   THE OHIO VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind   
   gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late this afternoon and   
   evening.   
      
   ...Ohio Valley...   
      
   Strong large-scale midlevel height falls will spread across the   
   Great Lakes/Ohio Valley later today in advance of a short-wave   
   trough that will dig into the Great Lakes by 16/00z. Associated cold   
   front will surge to a position from southern ON-northern OH-central   
   IN by late afternoon and this feature is expected to serve as the   
   focus for isolated thunderstorms. Latest model guidance is not   
   particularly aggressive in boundary-layer destabilization with   
   surface temperatures forecast to warm into the lower 60s along the   
   OH river into southern OH, with upper 50s expected downstream across   
   western PA. These temperatures would yield a few hundred J/kg   
   uncapped SBCAPE by late afternoon within a strongly sheared   
   environment. HREF guidance suggests weak frontal convection should   
   evolve between 16/00-02z across eastern OH/western PA. This activity   
   will spread downstream, but likely weaken fairly quickly in the   
   absence of meaningful buoyancy over central PA. Strong wind gusts   
   are the primary concern.   
      
   ...Southern CA...   
      
   Strong 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the   
   offshore trough toward the northern Baja Peninsula by 18z, with   
   high-level diffluent flow forecast across southern CA/lower CO River   
   Valley. Latest guidance suggests the associated cold front will   
   surge inland after 18z-19z, and cooling post frontal profiles will   
   lead to a bit more instability that should favor lightning within   
   deeper convective updrafts. Pre frontal convection is expected to be   
   weakly buoyant and updrafts should reflect this poor instability air   
   mass. While post frontal destabilization may lead to more robust   
   updrafts, weaker shear does not appear particularly favorable for   
   severe wind, but some small hail could be noted. Will not introduce   
   severe probabilities for these reasons.   
      
   ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/15/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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