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   ACUS02 KWNS 150514   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 150512   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1112 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Colorado River   
   Valley into the Four Corners states on Sunday. Additional isolated   
   thunderstorms may approach the central California coast early Monday   
   morning. Severe storms are not expected.   
      
   ...Western U.S...   
      
   An upper low and attendant trough over the western Great Basin and   
   Southwest states will pivot east/northeast toward the Rockies and   
   adjacent High Plains on Sunday/Sunday night. Moderate southwesterly   
   deep-layer flow ahead of this feature will overlap with midlevel   
   moisture and cooling aloft to provide weak instability. Isolated   
   thunderstorms will be possible from the Lower CO Valley into the   
   Four Corners states through evening as the upper trough progresses   
   east/northeast. A cool boundary layer and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg   
   will preclude severe potential.   
      
   Another upper low offshore the Pacific coast will develop southeast   
   toward the northern/central CA coast last Sunday/early Monday.   
   Cooling aloft will allow for development of weak instability near   
   the central CA coast as a weak surface low and Pacific front move   
   inland near around 08-12z Monday. Low-topped convection may produce   
   isolated lightning flashes while 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level   
   flow could foster locally gusty winds. Poor lapse rates and meager   
   instability will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 11/15/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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