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   FOUS11 KWBC 142100   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   400 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025   
      
   Valid 00Z Sat Nov 15 2025 - 00Z Tue Nov 18 2025   
      
      
   ...California...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   The atmospheric river that has brought snow to the Sierra the past   
   couple of days is winding down this evening, though the relative   
   lull in wintry weather looks to be short-lived. An associated   
   upper low churning off the southern California coast will begin to   
   swing inland on Saturday and provide an additional surge of moist   
   southerly flow into the central/southern Sierra. This flow will not   
   be ideally orthogonal to the Sierra off the Pacific, but the upper   
   low placement overhead and PWs above the 99.5th climatological   
   percentile (per the NAEFS) will allow for gradually falling snow   
   levels, ample lift, and widespread precipitation. Snow levels will   
   once again start out above 9k feet, but gradually fall to around   
   7-8k feet by Sunday morning ahead of another rapidly approaching   
   upper low early Monday. In total, an additional 1-2 feet of   
   snowfall (and even up to 3 feet locally in portions of the   
   southern Sierra) is possible above 8-9k feet elevation.   
      
   The latest WPC 72-hr snow probabilities >12" across the high   
   terrain of central and southern Sierra remain very high (80-99%),   
   and >24" probabilities above 10k feet across the southern Sierra   
   remain high (60-90%) as well.   
      
      
   ...Interior Northeast...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Persistent troughing remains across New England and southeast   
   Canada to start the period and will be reinforced by a potent   
   shortwave dropping southeast into the region by Sunday before   
   deepening into a strong mid-level low through the end of day 3.   
   This will provide for warm air advection driven precipitation   
   Saturday night into Sunday as cold low-level air ahead of this   
   systems produces a CAD setup across northern New England. The   
   associated surface low is forecast to slide from southeast Ontario   
   to coastal Maine and allow for the low-level cold air to only very   
   slowly retreat north. A wintry mix with pockets of freezing rain   
   is most likely to impact the Adirondacks into the Green and White   
   Mts of VT/NH/ME, beginning as early as late in the Day 1 period   
   (Sunday afternoon/evening).   
      
   The transient nature of this system should limit the ice threat   
   somewhat. For this region, WPC 24-hr probabilities (18z Sun - 18z   
   Mon) for at least 0.1" of ice generally range between 30-60%   
   (though are now as high as 75-95% for portions of the Adirondacks   
   in Essex County) and very low chances (<10%) for more than 0.25"   
   (but as high as 10% in the Adirondacks). Snowfall will remain the   
   predominant precip type across far northern NY, VT, NH and into   
   central/northern ME where QPF may also be limited enough to prevent   
   a major snowfall event, but some heavier snowfall rates are   
   possible with the initial precipitation onset when 700 mb fgen is   
   strongest and the mid-level low crosses over the region. WPC   
   probabilities for at least 8" are between 30-60% in this region   
   through Day 3, and locally are as high as 80% highest across   
   portions of the northern Greens/Whites and northern ME.   
      
   Once this system deepens across southeast Canada Sunday night into   
   Monday, very strong west-northwest flow will develop across the   
   Great Lakes and open up the potential for lake effect/upslope snow   
   into the Interior Northeast. Specifically, a multi-lake connected   
   snowband is possible extending from Lake Superior, Huron, and Erie   
   into far western NY and northwest PA given the strong northwesterly   
   flow. The latest WPC probabilities for at least 4" of snow across   
   portions of western NY and northwest PA have increased to 20-40%,   
   but expect these probabilities may continue to increase with the   
   addition of future CAM solutions.   
      
   Churchill/Snell   
      
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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