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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 141957   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 141956   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0156 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025   
      
   Valid 142000Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late   
   tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe   
   thunderstorms are not expected.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   No changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Isolated   
   thunderstorms remain possible over parts of southern CA this evening   
   and into early Saturday. Severe weather is unlikely given the very   
   weak buoyancy and shallow nature of convection. See the previous   
   discussion for more information.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 11/14/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025/   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Within prevalent split upper flow over western North America, a   
   southern-stream closed low off the coast of California will slowly   
   approach with the parent trough taking on a more neutral/slight   
   negative tilt over time. Showers/some thunderstorms will increase   
   toward the coast late tonight through early Saturday with the   
   approach of a frontal band. Instability is forecast to remain very   
   weak, with poor lapse rates aloft. Nevertheless, low-topped   
   convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for charge   
   separation and lightning flashes as it approaches the coast and   
   moves onshore across parts of southern California late tonight and   
   early Saturday. Low-level winds are expected to remain modest, but   
   south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with height through   
   mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur in the higher   
   terrain, the overall severe threat should be limited by minimal   
   instability and weak low-level shear.   
      
   $$   
      
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