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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0122 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025   
      
   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of the   
   lower Colorado Valley into Colorado Plateau and portions of the   
   central Great Plains, but the risk for severe storms still appears   
   negligible Sunday through Sunday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed   
   Sunday through Sunday night, mainly from coastal Maine through the   
   Canadian Maritimes, as an associated short wave trough digs   
   southeast of the lower Great Lakes region and reinforces positively   
   tilted large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern Canada   
   and the Northeast into adjacent western Atlantic.  In the wake of   
   the cyclone, a cold front appears likely to advance southeast of the   
   northern Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley, offshore of the Atlantic   
   Seaboard through the Carolinas into the Gulf Coast states by late   
   Sunday night.   
      
   Upstream, splitting troughing, within a broad area of generally   
   higher mid/upper heights, is forecast to continue to approach the   
   U.S Pacific coast, with perhaps the digging southern perturbation   
   supporting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the central California   
   coast Sunday night.  It appears that this will contribute to the   
   continued east-northeastward acceleration of the remnants of an   
   initially cut-off low, northeast of the lower Colorado Valley   
   through the Rockies.   
      
   Modest deepening of lee surface troughing will probably be   
   accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level flow across the   
   high plains, but it appears that better boundary-layer moistening   
   off the Gulf Basin will be confined beneath a relatively warm and   
   capping lower/mid-tropospheric environment across the northwestern   
   Gulf coast into southern Great Plains.   
      
   ...Southwest into Great Plains...   
   Cooling mid-levels, preceded by low-level moisture return from the   
   lower latitudes of the eastern Pacific and Gulf of California, may   
   contribute to thermodynamic profiles conducive to scattered   
   convective development capable of producing lightning across parts   
   of the Southwest through southern Rockies Sunday into Sunday night.   
   It is possible that this could include modest boundary layer   
   destabilization during the day across the deserts of southwestern   
   into central Arizona, in the presence of at least strong deep-layer   
   shear.  A couple of thunderstorms with potential to produce hail and   
   surface gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits might not be   
   completely out of the question.  While probabilities for this still   
   generally appear negligible, it is possible that this could change   
   with diminishing model spread in later outlooks for this period.   
      
   Otherwise, as mid/upper forcing for ascent increases downstream of   
   the Colorado Rockies by late Sunday night, an elevated moistening   
   layer rooted near or above 700 mb might destabilize sufficiently to   
   support weak convection capable of producing lightning.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 11/14/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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