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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1110 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025   
      
   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY   
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN   
   PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind   
   gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late Saturday afternoon   
   through Saturday evening.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Although smaller-scale developments remain uncertain, latest model   
   output offers little change to prior runs concerning the large-scale   
   pattern evolution Saturday through Saturday night.  It still appears   
   that a more progressive flow emanating from the northern   
   mid-latitude Pacific, including a prominent cyclone on its leading   
   edge, will begin to impinge on a blocked regime which has evolved   
   across parts of eastern North America into the Atlantic.  The   
   cyclone is likely to undergo considerable deformation and weaken,   
   but an emerging mid-level perturbation is forecast to dig across the   
   upper through lower Great Lakes region, accompanied by secondary   
   surface cyclogenesis.   
      
   Upstream, the westerlies may undergo notable amplification,   
   including building ridging across and east of the Canadian and   
   northern U.S. Rockies, as well as across parts of the central into   
   eastern northern mid-latitude Pacific.  In between the ridge axes,   
   models indicate that splitting troughing will progress across the   
   eastern mid-latitude Pacific.  With the approach of the digging   
   southern portion of this trough, an initially cut-off low offshore   
   of the southern California/northern Baja coast is forecast to   
   accelerate into the Southwest late Saturday through Saturday night.   
      
   ...Upper Ohio Valley...   
   Within the warm sector of the developing surface low, modest   
   low-level moisture return is forecast.  Both NAM and Rapid Refresh   
   forecast soundings indicate that this will contribute to the   
   development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least weak   
   conditional and convective instability in the lowest 5-6 km AGL,   
   becoming focused ahead of a southward advancing cold front, across   
   parts of the mid into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau vicinity   
   by late Saturday afternoon.   
      
   Where the weak boundary-layer destabilization occurs, it appears   
   that a warm layer aloft may tend to suppress thunderstorm   
   development, and mid/upper forcing for ascent to overcome the   
   inhibition remains unclear due to model spread.  However, there does   
   appear a general consensus for a pocket of modest mid-level cooling   
   across eastern Ohio into the western slopes of the Allegheny   
   Mountains late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  This may   
   be accompanied by the development of a relatively compact band of   
   stronger showers and thunderstorms, in the presence of strengthening   
   lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (including 40-50 kt mean   
   west-northwesterly flow).  Perhaps aided by latent cooling in   
   downdrafts associated with melting small hail, this activity may   
   contribute to the downward transfer of stronger winds to the   
   surface, before weakening will crossing the Allegheny Mountains   
   Saturday evening.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
   It still appears that a pocket of colder mid-level air,   
   characterized by 500 mb temperatures as cold as near or just below   
   -20 C, will finally spread inland late Saturday through Saturday   
   night.  These temperatures are generally on the warmer side compared   
   to cool season environments typically conducive to low-topped   
   convective capable of producing lightning across and inland of   
   Pacific coastal areas.  However, it is possible that low-level   
   moisture return emanating from the lower latitude eastern Pacific   
   and Gulf of California may compensate and contribute to   
   thermodynamic profiles at least minimally sufficient for   
   thunderstorms.  Even if this occurs, particularly near southern   
   California coastal areas, generally saturated profiles with very   
   weak CAPE, and low-level hodographs becoming modest to weak, seem   
   likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.   
      
   Otherwise, it might not be out of the question that preceding   
   elevated moisture return contributes to layers of weak conditional   
   instability minimally supportive of convection capable of producing   
   lightning across parts of the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley   
   vicinity.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 11/14/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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