From: physfitfreak@gmail.com

On 12/5/24 1:30 AM, Physfitfreak wrote:
> In Syria the rapid spread of American, Israeli, British, Turkish, and
> Wahhabi backed terrorists have slowed but not to zero. And if there was
> such a plan as capturing Edlib while all terrorists were out and spread
> away, the picture is now different. Assad's forces could not reach
> Edlib. It got bugged down in Hamah and looks like Hamah is getting
> surrounded by terrorist forces as we speak. If Hamah falls Syrians are
> fucked.




- Yep. Hamah fell. Syrian Army instead of fighting just run away without
even packing. They don't have it in them to fight. Syria is fucked.

I see no sign of Iranians or Iraqis or Lebanon's militia helping them.
This is for a good reason. Iran did send a few military advisors but I
don't know if they really engaged at all. The army is running away from
battle fields too fast to allow time to design good plans based on
situation on the ground that stays one fucking day the same. So these
advisors are useless.

And Russia is throwing like 4 bombs a day :( No ground troops.

Syrians really wanted others fight the war for them. Assad had 5 years
to improve Syria's defenses and all they was in-fighting between various
tribes. You cannot have a stable country built on a tribal system.
Assad's father knew that, and on seeing infighting would destroy both
sides! He did that in this same city of Hamah in 1982 when Israel had
attacked Lebanon and intended to continue inside Syria (and after that
inside Iraq). Hafez Assad killed 15000 tribal warring people in Hamah in
that year to suppress the infighting! That's how Syrian government could
live after that. You can't have such tribal issues in sensitive times.

Well, his son didn't want to do that to his countrymen unless the tribes
picked up arms against Syrian government. So BOTH TIMES he committed to
action when it was too late.

If you ask me, Syrians will turn into a nation governed by another
country. They can't stand on their own feet. Just like Israelis.
Israelis are also tribal people to the core and always need another
country to take care of them. This has been so from ancient times when
they needed Cyrus to help them even be, and now they need Europe and USA
combined to help them be!

So it won't be "Israel" who'll get the southern areas of Syria. Iran
will not let them. Northern parts of Syria would go to Turkey. Russia
will get a bit of shore area with the excuse of protecting their base there.

Heck Nazis want to get Iran divided up too, but that's a dream that will
turn into decades long nightmare for them, and then they lift their
sorry asses and leave. And when they leave, you won't find an Israel or
any other Nazi base anywhere in the region. Iran stays. She has a very
different texture from a tribal one.

Iraqis are tribal also, and after Syria it'll be their turn. Like Syria,
they were also part of Turkey till WWI.


- Iran just now offered Syria two brigades of her military forces within
two weeks on one condition: Syrian Army must begin holding their
positions. No retreats.

"Brigade" is not exactly its equivalent in Iranian military system which
is "lashgar", but it is close. Each lashgar is about 4 to 5 thousand
troops of various "gordan"s (battalions, kind of) which itself divides
into various "dasteh"s (platoons, kind of), etc and etc. Lashgar is a
force to reckon with. It's not a joke! And two of them are offered.

But...

I don't think this materializes. A Syrian soldier doesn't know what
"Syria" even is. He can only and only fight for his own tribe. I said
what Soleymany mentioned about them after first hand close observation.
"They're useless", he said.

And Iran knows that and does not want to fight the Syrian's own fight
for them. That's why that condition was placed on the offer. If Syrians
pull themselves up and fight as they should, they'll get a chance to win
with a major help from Iran. Otherwise... it'll be other countries
governing those people.

--- SoupGate-DOS v1.05
 * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)