XPost: rec.radio.amateur.dx, rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Sep 23 0120 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 September 2024

Solar activity was low with C-class flare activity observed over
16-21 Sep. Solar activity reached moderate levels on 22 Sep due to
an M3.7/2n flare at 22/2139 UTC from Region 3835 (); the largest
event of the week. Regions 3828 () and 3831 () produced most of the
C-class flare activity observed throughout the week. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels at
17/0735 UTC, reached a peak flux of 33.6 pfu at 17/1050 UTC, and
decreased below the S1 level at 17/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained elevated over 18-19 Sep, but remained below the
S1 level. Background levels were observed over 20-22 Sep.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 16-17, and 19-22 Sep, and normal to moderate levels
were observed on 18 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 16 Sep due to
positive polarity CH HSS influences early in the day, followed by
the initial arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 13-14 Sep late in
the day. Periods of G1-G4 (Minor-Severe) storming were observed on
17 Sep due to sustained CME enhancements. Active conditions were
observed again on 18 Sep, with periods of G1 (Minor) storming
observed on 19 Sep, as CME influences waned and subsided. Quiet and
unsettled conditions were observed on 20 Sep followed by quiet
conditions over 21-22 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 September - 19 October 2024

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels
throughout the outlook period, with a varying chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 23-26 Sep and 12-15 Oct, with
normal to moderate levels expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach unsettled levels on
25-26 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of
active conditions are likely on 05-06 Oct due to another positive
polarity CH HSS. Periods of active conditions are likely again on 10
Oct, followed by likely periods of G1 (Minor) storming on 11-12 Oct,
due to yet another positive polarity CH HSS.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
 * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)